Methodology — Civic Mobilization & Readiness Index (CMRI)

CMRI is an informational index built from public indicators. It summarizes civic, legal, and policy activity related to mobilization and preparedness. It is not a prediction of conflict and not legal advice. Our goal is clarity and transparency in the public interest.

1) What CMRI Measures

CMRI aggregates signals from public sources into six indicator families. Each family reflects a distinct dimension of civic/legal mobilization:

• Legislative & Regulatory Activity (LRA): draft bills, enacted laws, decrees, parliamentary votes.
• Budget & Procurement Signals (BPS): budget deltas, urgent tenders, multi‑year procurement.
• Military & Civil‑Protection Operations (MCPO): announced exercises, call‑ups, civil‑defense drills.
• Diplomatic & Strategic Posture (DSP): formal agreements, sanctions posture, deterrence signals.
• Public Communications & Media Signals (PCMS): verified coverage volume, advisories to citizens.
• Emergency Powers & Exceptional Measures (EPEM): states of emergency, extraordinary powers.

2) Sources

We use public sources: official gazettes, parliaments, ministries, budget and procurement portals, civil‑protection notices, EU/NATO schedules, and reputable press. We maintain a curated allowlist and avoid user‑generated or unverifiable sources.

3) From Signals to Scores

• Classification & extraction: documents and notices are categorized; key events are extracted.
• Normalization: indicators are scaled to a common range with rolling baselines and recency weighting.
• Family scores: each family aggregates its indicators into a 0–100 sub‑score.
• Composite index: family scores are combined into a daily 0–100 CMRI per country.
• Stability controls: smoothing and hysteresis reduce noise and avoid rapid flip‑flops.

4) Risk Bands

• Stable (0–19): ordinary environment; no elevated mobilization signals.
• Elevated (20–39): notable activity (e.g., legislative movement, budget signals).
• Watch (40–59): multiple distinct signals or stronger activity in a short window.
• High (60–79): sustained multi‑source activity with legal/operational salience.
• Critical (80–100): systemic, urgent indicators (e.g., emergency powers, call‑ups).

5) Notifications

Users can opt in to email alerts. We send an alert when the public‑facing band for a selected country moves upward meaningfully. We avoid noise and keep content factual and concise.

6) Transparency & Limitations

• Public sources only; no private data or operational details.
• Indicators summarize public activity and may lag reality at times.
• CMRI is not a prediction and not legal advice; it does not assess individual risk.

7) Updates & Governance

We periodically review indicators and weights for clarity and fairness, document material changes, and publish update notes. Feedback and corrections are welcome via the contact details in our Privacy and Terms pages.